💵 The Difference Maker 💵

Numbers Don’t Lie

Here at David Smith Homes Group we track our statistics very closely to ensure we’re delivering on our commitments to our clients. One of these statistics is the ‘sale to list ratio’, i.e. what is the final sale price compared to the list price?

Since the market turned in 2022 our listings’ sale to list ratio is 100.17%, and if we measured from even later into ‘the turning’, from 2023 until today, it remains 100.11% on average.

In the most recent months though we’ve seen that number dropping, so I did a deep dive recently to work out what was going on. Our marketing has only improved, and our effort is through the roof, so it’s something else…

The Price Range

If you’ve ever been in a listing consultation with us you’ll know we bring a sheet called ‘By The Numbers’, it contains a price range we believe your home will sell in, as well as a summary of fees in dollars and cents, not just percentages.

Ultimately, list price is always determined by the clients, not by us. We’re advisors, not dictators. In recent months we’ve seen a trend where sellers are listing on the upper end of the range, often right at the top, because the range is lower than they were hoping for due to our high inventory/low sales market dynamics and the resulting price pullback.

Their sense is that starting high will “leave room to negotiate.” It feels strategic – like they’re holding the cards. The problem? That strategy almost always backfires.

The Psychology of Overpricing

The results of pricing right at the top end of the range have formed a very consistent and predictable timeline:

• Day 1–30: Buyers assume the sellers are out of touch or misadvised. Showing requests are few and far between, and open house attendance is low.
• Day 31–60: The few who do show up wonder what’s wrong with the property, asking “Why hasn’t it sold?”
• Day 61–90: The listing becomes that house. The one every other Realtor uses for comparison, causing them to list even lower, making us look further out of touch.
• Day 91+: The home turns radioactive. Even if the price is adjusted down, buyers now assume there’s a problem hiding somewhere.

The longer we sit, the weaker our position becomes.

What Happens When It’s Priced Right?

Meanwhile, what happens with the home that was priced right from the start? It’s long gone. The buyers saw the value in today’s terms and jumped, occasionally even receiving multiple offers, giving some leverage for a price slightly above asking. That seller is then able to move onto their purchase, looking to secure an overpriced listing at a distress sale price.

This is particularly important in a market that continues to trend downwards. Many of our markets are dropping in a range of $5,000-10,000 per month. It’s far, far wiser to get underneath those price regressions.

The Bottom Line

The market doesn’t negotiate with our wishes. It just waits us out. Moving forwards we’ll continue to provide a range, with all eventual outcomes discussed, but we’ll be adjusting our advice to more directly advise a mid point in the range, or if the seller wants the opportunity to move on in a most timely fashion, a price lower in the range.

Because ultimately, price is the difference maker in today’s market and for the foreseeable future.

If you’d like to find out what our price range would look like on your current home, as always, never hesitate to reach out!